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Sunday, September 18, 2011

Market outlook for the week 19-23 September

Read the facts provided for knowledge & use your own wisdom to trade in this market.
This week the initial trading days will be of more importance, as we can see some dicy action again to create the confusion among retail traders. The current strong looking market can go further higher & then revert back in a flash. After Thursday… who knows?  If the market gets overbought again for the short term, & then we can expect it to give bears a chance to njoy.  But calling a top seems almost impossible in this insanely manipulated market. But how can you go long at those higher levels coming soon?  We can’t and won’t.  You’ll lose big time if you do so in options. The monthly positional options will be destroyed with the time decay, even if the market goes up/down as you want it to. It’s a “no win situation” no matter what you do!
So for now, let’s just take it one day at a time.  Initial days of this week can be favorable to bulls if they manage to hold above 5010 level, so we are still looking for that blow off top to happen before bears get short again. If we get that big move up early in the week, then it could sell off into the last days of the week. If it’s strong all week then wait until Friday to see if it looks ready to roll over.  We know we are close to a short term top, but we can’t pick it exactly. These coming few weeks could be few of those weeks that puts in a final top followed by a sharp bear action, as we never know what bad news they could release over the weekend? Remember, most crashes are on Friday and Monday...... just food for thought. Everything is now lining up perfectly for a very nice sell off in the market till the end of 2011.
Till now bulls are trying hard to sustain above 5010 mark on closing basis, but If it doesn’t by some odd reason, and it closes below the 5010 mark, then we will need another conforming close below it later before we’d be comfortable saying “the bear is back” & then we expect a 65-145pts downside movement  in markets. Revengeful bears can also brutally murder the bulls & then this downside move can come in a single trading session also. Bulls will be having an upper-hand once they decisively cross & close above 5195, if this happens bulls wil get an extra dose of Viagra. 
Moving on to this week, markets are trading above 5010 mark, & if bulls cross & sustain above 5154 level then a lot of stop loss for shorts will hit and all bears will run to cover their shorts. This short covering can take markets to higher levels 5228-5280-5339. However the range 5154-5190 will be resistance zone & upper limit of range would be hurdle for bulls for moving up & crossover of this range will show sharp sudden upmove. In the meantime if bears are able to stop the bull ride from crossing the resistance range, then it could be party time for bears. Support for bulls exist at 5010 level, if this is breached then we can see nifty fut sliding down to 4955-4870-4805. For this week the immediate range look like 5010-5190 & a broader range of 4870-5339,  with bear attack expected on higher levels. Decisive Breakout of this range on lower side below 5010 will show selling pressure. Now we have a market that is totally controlled by manipulators, so anything anytime unexpectedly can happen & change the whole scenario. 
Markets are trading on highly volatile conditions, & all up rise is manipulated, so all traders must stay cautious & must hedge all their long/short positions in order to save their hard earned money from these crooks. The best way to deal in this market is to respect the levels & trade bi-directionally rather than to wait for unidirectional gain in speculation. Read the facts provided for knowledge & use your own wisdom to trade in this market.
 Intraday Calls 
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For all trades, keep trailing your stop loss once the stock is above the buying price. Don't take delivery of any intraday call. Avoid spike buying. 

 
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