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Monday, February 16, 2009

Nifty View for the week 16-20February

Markets remained firm during the previous week on the support of mixed global cues and as expected Nifty gave decent pullback after failing to close below 2690 level. Now for pullback to continue Nifty needs to close above 2990 for 2-3consecutive days. Investors picked up blue-chip stocks from auto, capital goods, realty and banking sectors amid expectations of a further cut in bank rates and a strong stimulus through the forthcoming interim Budget .The Sensex ended the week at 9634 with an impressive gain of 333 points, while the Nifty(spot) closed at 2948, up 105.25 points.



Media reports that the finance ministry is contemplating on a proposal to remove the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) and the easing of some of the foreign direct investment (FDI) norms by the Centre eased supported the ascent. Buying by foreign funds also aided the surge. Fertilizer stocks managed a sharp upmove during the week after the government approved their plants using natural gas instead of fuel oil and naphtha thus enabling the companies to operate at a higher capacity. Fertilizers and Agriculture sector can see some upside due to budget.
Interim general budget for 2009-2010 which the government will unveil during trading hours today will set the tone for the week. Cues from the global markets too will be crucial for the domestic markets.
However there is a fear that any disappointment from the interim general budget may lead to sell-off as the market has made good recovery during the past week on expectations that the Government would offer tax relaxations and sector-specific stimulus package to uptrend economic growth.
And therefore we recommend you all to trade high cautious and not to leverage positions at higher levels,without getting the proper signal and budget annoucements.
This week Nifty fut will face resistance at levels of 2990-3030,these levels must be watched carefully, If Nifty sustains above these levels then we can see nifty touching 3045-3080-3130 levels. However failing to cross these levels and breaking the major support levels of 2915-2860,can lead negative sentiments in market and we can see Nifty touching 2770-2665-2540 levels. All long/short trades must be hedged with appropriate OPTIONS(put/call) in order to minimise loses and maximising gains. Nifty range for this week will be 2860-3030. Breakout on either side can lead to sharp movemnt on nifty.


Nifty levels-
Resistance- 2965-2990-3028-3080-3130
Support- 2915-2885-2860-2810-2770


With Interim Budget to be announced, Sectors & Stocks to watch out for -
Sectors:

Fertilizer
Sugar
Pharma.
IT.
FMCG.


Stocks:

Chambal Fertilizer
Nagarjuna Fertilizer
Shree Renuka Sugar
Uttam Sugars.
Satyam
Unitech
Larsen & Tubro
IFCI
Titagarh Wagons Ltd
GlenmarkPharma


Stocks for the week-
Reliance communication
Indraprastha Gas
M&M
Dredging corporation

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